Tesla Faces Headwinds in Q1 2021 that Will Convert to Long-Term Tailwinds, Says Loup Ventures

Photo: @AustinTeslaClub/Twitter

Tesla faced short-term headwinds in Q1 2021, which will impact the number of deliveries. However, some of them will eventually become long-term tailwinds for the company, says Loup Ventures.

Tesla will release delivery data in the next couple of days. Loup Ventures' Gene Munster says the numbers may be lower than Wall Street expects, however there is no real cause for concern as they are temporary and short-term headwinds will eventually turn into long-term tailwinds.

While Wall Street expects Tesla to report 174,000 deliveries, Munster says the firm expects around 160,000. He explains this by some of the factors that the company faced in Q1 2021:

• Chinese New Year. China is an important Tesla market, so a temporary decline in production there can have some impact.
• Lack of microchips. This affected the overall ability of Tesla, like other automakers, to produce the target number of vehicles.
• Expectations of customers in the US to receive higher incentives from the government to buy EVs, which can be changed according to the new Biden plan. This could be the reason that some customers wanted to postpone buying a Tesla car.
• Model S deliveries are delayed, which will affect the final delivery results for the quarter.
• A small fire at Giga Press also slightly delayed the speed of production.

My 1Q $TSLA delivs est is 162.8K (170K Street) vs 180.7K 4Q record. Likely Fri 4/2 AH.

Differences:
1/ Model S/X Refresh (-19.5K). Delivs will begin 2Q.
2/ MIC M3 (-14.5K). Reflects cannibaliz’n from MIC M-Y, and no M3 LR (removed LR RWD Jan).
3/ MIC MY (+14.5K). Startup 1/21. pic.twitter.com/1Zb1BgjO3F

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) March 30, 2021

Munster also pointed out that these are only short-term headwinds that will not have a significant impact on the number of deliveries in Q1 2021. At the same time, some of them will become long-term tailwinds for Tesla. First of all, this concerns incentives to buy Tesla cars in the United States. Their increase will inevitably lead to higher demand. Another factor is the updated Model S and X; although at the moment Tesla is still adjusting the manufacturing process, in the end, the updated models are receiving increased attention, which leads to increased demand.

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