Tesla Gigafactory 3 is estimated to make 3,000 Model 3 units a week during its first production phase, said Grace Tao, the Vice President of Tesla Global during the 2019 Shanghai City Promotion Conference. Producing 3,000 units a week is ambitious and maybe surprising to investors—both bears and bulls alike—but China doesn't mince words.
"Based on the positive business environment in Shanghai, many of Tesla's innovations will come to fruition. Based on the recent developments, choosing Shanghai as the first Tesla overseas manufacturing site was the best decision," Tao said.
In early November, Robyn Denholm, Tesla Chairman, will be coming to China for the first time for the 2019 China International Import Expo, reported Xinhua Net. Jerome Guillen, President of Automotive at Tesla, just arrived in Shanghai to visit Gigafactory 3 this week. It seems that top Tesla executives are visiting GF3 before Model 3 production starts to make sure everything will run smoothly.
Credit: Jason Yang/YouTube
The VP of Tesla Global's words is a strong message to any company that wants to invest in Shanghai. Tao's production estimates far exceed Elon Musk's predictions by at least 2,000 units. Compared to bear estimates, 3,000 units seem overzealous. For example, Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas, who is perceived by Wall Street as a moderate bull, predicted Giga 3 would only produce around 600 to 770 Model 3 units per week in 2020 and have 1,100 units per week in 2021, according to Market Watch.
However, China has not failed to deliver so far, especially when it comes to Tesla and Gigafactory 3. Elon Musk thought the Shanghai Super Factory—as it is called in China—would be ready for trial production by the end of 2019 around December. Workers in China decided to finish Phase 1 earlier, and it was done by September 2019, nearly three months in advance.
During Tesla's Q3 2019 earnings call, Musk announced that Tesla was ahead of schedule in Gigafactory 3 and had already started trial production on the Model 3. Recent drone footage released by Youtuber Jason Yang revealed that multiple trial production Model 3 units may already be finished, and Phase 2 of Gigafactory 3 is well underway.