Tesla Semi will account for about 5% of the company's total sales in the long run, Loup Funds suggests. The electric truck’s entry into the market, in fact, is a warning to all semi manufacturers.
On December 1, Tesla officially delivered its first Semi to PepsiCo. This was a milestone that Loup Funds believes also set a wake-up call for the trucking industry. Gene Munster and Rebecca Mulberg wrote in a note to clients that the next five years “are likely to be a windy road for traditional Class A truck manufacturers as they scramble to embrace electric.”
Analysts have noted that in Tesla's Q3 2022 earnings report, the company announced its goal of producing 50,000 Semis by 2024. Loup Funds is less optimistic and suggests that 20,000 deliveries in 2024 are more likely. However, the firm notes that in the long run, the Semi is likely to account for about 5% of Tesla's total sales.
Semi offers an opportunity to have an outsized impact on GHG emissions from transport, which makes it very attractive for companies looking to reduce their carbon footprint. Trucks are the biggest polluter on the roads. In the U.S. they account for just 1.1% of the total fleet of vehicles on the road yet generate about 18% of emissions. Electrifying the heavy-duty truck segment is an essential part of transitioning the world to sustainable energy.
In addition, electric trucks can carry more loads than diesel trucks. In the E.U., electric semi trucks are allowed to be 2 tons (~4,400 pounds) heavier than diesel equivalents, and in the U.S. the allowance is 0.9 tons (2,000 pounds). When fully loaded, Tesla Semi is able to achieve over 500 miles of range, achieved through aerodynamics and highly efficient motors.
A separate but critical benefit of owning an electric truck is the cost of maintenance and charging. Charging with electricity is approximately 2.5 times cheaper per mile than refueling with diesel. Operators can see estimated fuel savings of up to $200,000 within their first three years of ownership, according to Tesla. With remote diagnostics, over-the-air software updates, and fewer moving parts to maintain, operators will spend less time at service centers and more time on the road.
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About the Author
Eva Fox joined Tesmanian in 2019 to cover breaking news as an automotive journalist. The main topics that she covers are clean energy and electric vehicles. As a journalist, Eva is specialized in Tesla and topics related to the work and development of the company.