Tesla could achieve growth of around 50% year-on-year in 2022 despite headwinds throughout the year. Although this required big efforts in Q4, it seems that Tesla was able to get as close as possible to the previously set goal.
At the end of 2020, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that the company would be aiming for 50% annual sales growth. He explained that the 50% growth target is a multi-year average, and some years will see faster growth, while other years will see slower growth. This is an important aspect that every investor should keep in mind and be flexible while watching Tesla develop, even if at some point it seems that it has faltered.
“Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries.”
The growth of the company depends on several important components. While equipment capacity is something that a company can control, there is also something that is beyond its control. Factory uptime, operational efficiency, and the capacity and stability of the supply chain do not depend directly on Tesla, which means that any failures can lead to obstacles that the manufacturer cannot quickly overcome. For example, in the spring, Giga Shanghai, which is the company's export hub, was closed due to the COVID-19 lockdown. Supply chains in China have been hit hard, and other Tesla factories around the world have also been forced to slow down production. This had a negative impact on the number of deliveries in Q2, although Tesla was able to recover quickly to reach a new record already in Q3.
In Q3, Musk said that the company may not meet its 50% annual growth target, so investors should be prepared for this and remember that this will not affect Tesla's long-term growth, as investment firms covering the company remind. At the moment, the manufacturer is struggling to meet the target, and although it may seem unrealistic, it looks like there is a chance that the company will get as close to the goal as possible.
For Tesla to reach its 2022 target, it will need to sell more than 1.4 million vehicles. 310,048 units were delivered in Q1, 254,695 in Q2, and 343,830 in Q3. Thus, in three quarters of the year, the company delivered 908,573 cars. This means that in Q4 Tesla must deliver about 500,000 vehicles to reach the target.
Although it is difficult to predict the exact number of vehicles that will be delivered, The Street's consensus is around 425,000 units. If this is achieved, then Tesla will be very close to the goal and reach the YoY growth of 43%. It should be kept in mind that actual deliveries may not reach this indicator, as in Q3 2022, or significantly exceed it, which has already happened multiple times. Delivery data will most likely be released on January 2, 2023.
© 2022, Eva Fox | Tesmanian. All rights reserved.
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About the Author
Eva Fox joined Tesmanian in 2019 to cover breaking news as an automotive journalist. The main topics that she covers are clean energy and electric vehicles. As a journalist, Eva is specialized in Tesla and topics related to the work and development of the company.