Tesla could deliver 500K+ vehicles in Q4, increasing annual deliveries by 50%. Due to headwinds in 2022, now the manufacturer is ramping up production even harder to get as many EVs on the road as possible.
Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry visited Tesla's Fremont factory again and was impressed. According to the analyst, the manufacturer is preparing for a super-record quarter at the end of the year. In addition, he visited another Tesla factory, Giga Texas, which gave him a good idea of the progress. Based on observations made at the factories, Chowdhry estimated that Tesla will deliver over 500,000 units in Q4 2022.
The analyst noted that the employees at the Fremont factory work very hard and their motivation is unparalleled in the automotive industry. They worked even on Labor Day weekend, which is an important indicator. In fact, many of Tesla's employees are sincerely committed to the company's mission, so they have powerful intrinsic motivation, and Tesla always adequately rewards those who are dedicated to the cause.
Chowdhry stressed that production time at the Fremont plant is at least 10% more efficient compared to Q2 2022. In addition, he noted that the production and supply of Model S Plaid have increased significantly. This indicated that the factory is in the period of optimization, which means that the full force of its operation can be fully assessed in Q4.
Additionally, in a New Street Research note, analyst Pierre Ferragu wrote that Tesla's Fremont factory is close to the full capacity of 650,000 vehicles a year, and there is still some room for expansion. This indicated that the factory could still offer an increase in the number of cars produced.
Chowdhry revealed that Tesla CEO Elon Musk spent several nights in August at Giga Texas. He attributed this to the manufacturer being busy with some important work and pointed out that the factory had recently increased production. It is possible that Musk's 24/7 stay at Giga Texas was also due to mass production of the 4680 battery cells scheduled for Q3, though Chowdhry did not mention this.
However, the analyst noted that on September 1, several trucks filled with Model Ys began to leave the factory. He attributed this to an increase in car production.
Based on the information received, Chowdhry made delivery estimates for Q4 2022. Their numbers were amazing, especially given headwinds such as the Giga Shanghai production shutdown, production line upgrades in China, and supply chain disruption. According to analyst forecasts, their number could reach 511,000 units.
Giga Shanghai: 246,000
Fremont Plant: 145,000
Giga Berlin: 60,000
Giga Texas: 60,000
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