Tesla Could Deliver 1.5M Cars in 2022, with 2021 Start of Production at Giga Texas & Berlin

Photo: Tesla

Big changes await Tesla in 2022, as the company will begin mass production at two new factories, which will entail a major increase in overall production capacity. Information from a manager of the company hints that next year Tesla will be able to achieve production of 1.5 million vehicles, as well as develop in many other directions.

Managing Partner at The Future Fund LLC, Gary Black, tweeted that his company met with a Tesla manager on December 8. After this meeting, the analyst shared some general thoughts that came up for him.

Firstly, Black believes that the manufacturer's new factories, Giga Texas and Giga Berlin, will open with limited production before the end of 2021. In fact, this is in line with Tesla's general expectations. Giga Texas is already in its final stages, while Giga Berlin is only awaiting final environmental approval. The analyst also expects that, in the first year of operation, both of the new factories of the manufacturer will have a production volume and gross profit percentage similar to the first year of operation at Giga Shanghai.

Secondly, Black is confident that Tesla can deliver 1.5 million units in 2022 if battery availability allows. This number coincides with the opinion of New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu, who raised his price target for Tesla to $1,580, becoming the highest on Street. It's worth noting that Wall Street currently expects Tesla to be able to deliver about 1.27 million vehicles in 2022.

Black wrote that the expansion of Tesla's production capacity next year will come from the expansion of Giga Shanghai, as well as the start and ramp-up of production at Giga Texas and Giga Berlin. In addition, he indicated that Tesla is planning new locations, which should also play a role in expanding production capacity. It is currently unknown where a new plant—or plants—would be exactly, but rumors that the manufacturer is planning a factory in India have been circulating in the community for some time now.

In addition, the analyst wrote that the production and start of deliveries of Cybertruck is being prepared for late 2022. As Tesla CEO Elon Musk said earlier, the electric pickup will have many new technologies, which will significantly complicate production. However, once Cybertruck comes out, it will undeniably be exactly that—a product worthy of such a long wait.

4/ Cybertruck on track for late 2022 start of product’n/delivs.
5/ Capacity expansion required will be via Shanghai/Austin/Berlin expansions first, plus new locations.$TSLA IR is meeting with buy side investment teams via virtual 1:1s at the Deutsche Bank auto conf today.

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) December 9, 2021

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