Cybertruck will significantly change the US truck market, says ARK Invest. Their observations show that the electric truck is of interest to a much larger circle of consumers than analysts and agencies suggest.
Analysts, forecasting agencies, and car manufacturers once thought that electric vehicles would become nothing more than a niche product, notes Sam Korus of ARK Invest. Now, they all also underestimate Cybertruck. According to ARK, low expectations for Tesla's electric truck are based on a “blind spot.” Today, most automakers fund the development and sale of their unprofitable electric vehicles with profits from the sale of gas-powered trucks. And if Cybertruck destroys that profit center, traditional automakers could be in trouble, the analyst said.
In 2014, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted that the share of long-range electric vehicles in the US market in 2040 would be almost zero. However, last year the market share of American electric vehicles exceeded 5%. The EIA has adjusted its forecast and now expects the US EV market share to stabilize at ~14% in 2040. However, according to ARK research, the global electric vehicle market share is likely to rise to 70%+ by 2027, with the US not far behind.
The EIA expects trucks to make up 69% of all vehicles in the US by 2050. At the same time, the agency expects that electric trucks will not exceed 10% of the total.
ARK disagrees with this prediction. The firm points out that in addition to the 1.5 million existing Cybertruck pre-orders, early Google Trends data show that the Tesla truck could be as popular as Tesla Model Y. On April 2, 2023, when Elon Musk tweeted that he was walking the Cybertruck production line, Google searches for Cybertruck surpassed those of Model Y. Notably, the search volume for Cybertruck has originated in truck-loving regions, potentially suggesting a purchase is being considered.
Korus notes that while sell-side analysts may not be comfortable predicting the exponential growth of electric vehicles, ARK believes it would be a mistake for them not to consider the implications of Cybertruck's success for traditional automakers.
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Eva Fox joined Tesmanian in 2019 to cover breaking news as an automotive journalist. The main topics that she covers are clean energy and electric vehicles. As a journalist, Eva is specialized in Tesla and topics related to the work and development of the company.