TSLA Bull Analyst: In 2030, Tesla Will Sell More Cars Than Volkswagen Does Today--Wanna Make A Bet?

by Eva Fox October 09, 2020

TSLA Bull Analyst: In 2030, Tesla Will Sell More Cars Than Volkswagen Does Today--Wanna Make A Bet?

New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu spoke about Tesla today on Fox Business and said that by 2030, "Tesla will be larger than Volkswagen is today."

Ferragu said the information from Battery Day showed how Tesla will achieve very high battery production and increase the production capacity of factories. It also showed how they would get the price down at the battery level, which means they could start selling a $25,000 car in 3-5 years from now. This, in turn, means that their market can grow up to 8 million vehicles.

More From New Street Research Notes & Interview:
New Street Research has calculated that, for all traditional automakers, developing vehicles on an electric platform will be very expensive. It costs traditional OEMs $18,000 to electrify a car, which results in lost profits and electric models selling at an average $16,000 premium to ICE equivalents. They will have to sell them for more than $50,000, while Tesla sells its Model 3 for 10-15% less and is the equivalent of a traditional ICE premium mid-sized sedan.

Traditional OEMs, therefore, cannot compete until they achieve cost parity, and this is still at least 5 years away. EV pure plays are flourishing and doing better, but won't have any competitive advantage to beat Tesla. At best, they will follow suit to the leading brand in its success, with less scale and less experience.

Thus, the firm concluded that in 10 years, Tesla would be in "hyper-growth" mode, which means that the company will repeat the trajectory of Amazon over the past 10 years.

 



"It's going to become the #1 premium carmaker and the #1 carmaker of all in 2030. Yes," Ferragu said. "Let's take the bet, in 2030 Tesla will be larger than Volkswagen is today," he continued.

Two days ago, New Street Research raised its target price for Tesla shares to $578 from $ 400, and sees Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) with "a decade of hyper-growth ahead" and "no credible competition on the horizon."

 

To know more about New Street Research, please visit www.newstreetresearch.com

© 2020, Eva Fox. All rights reserved.

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Article edited by @SmokeyShorts, you can follow him on Twitter








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