Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) delivered 241,300 vehicles and produced 237,823 units in Q3 2021. This number of vehicles delivered corresponds to an increase of 20% compared to the previous quarter and 73% compared to the third quarter of 2020. It also significantly exceeds the Wall Street consensus at 221,000 and GSe at 218,000. With 241,300 vehicles delivered, Tesla exceeded expectations by a very impressive 19,300 units. Tesla teams have done an excellent job of handling the growing production ramp-up, as well as tackling the challenges of the global supply chain and logistics, producing and delivering vehicles quickly and efficiently around the world.
Of these 241,300 delivered vehicles, 232,025 were Model 3/Y (+ 16% QoQ and + 87% YoY), and 9,275 were Model S/X (down 39% YoY; recall that Tesla is transitioning to new versions of the Models S and X).
The lease mix was 7% of deliveries (flat vs. 20).
Goldman Sachs published the implications and analysis in a new note. According to the firm, deliveries were above the published consensus forecasts, and also, in their opinion, above investors' expectations. Goldman Sachs had expected global supply and semiconductor restrictions to have a greater impact on Tesla's third-quarter deliveries, but the company handled the challenge well with superior planning, logistics, and efficiency.
"While we had been anticipating a larger impact from the global shipping and semiconductor constraints on 3Q deliveries, the results imply to us that the company benefited from a combination of strong operational execution / Tesla's use of Shanghai as an export hub / Tesla was planning in advance with the supply chain for robust 2021 growth. Furthermore, as more details on geographic mix become available, the strong deliveries could help to address concerns about demand for Tesla vehicles in China."
The firm expects Tesla's supply and production to improve further in Q4 as the semiconductor situation should improve, although it will still be limited on an absolute basis. Given this strong performance, Goldman Sachs writes that Tesla is likely to outperform their annual estimate of 866,000 deliveries, which will increase their 2021 EPS estimate.
"We expect Tesla's deliveries and production to improve further in 4Q as chip supply increases (although we expect chip supply to remain tight on an absolute basis). We believe the strong 3Q preliminary results indicate likely upside to our full-year estimate of 866k deliveries and in turn our 2021 EPS estimate."
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