At the moment, no one knows exactly how many cars Tesla can deliver in 2021. However, many analysts and investors believe that the company will be able to meet its 2020 target of delivering 500,000 vehicles. But what awaits Tesla in 2021, and how will this affect its financial situation? Gali from HyperChange/YouTube offers his Tesla 2021 Financial Projections.
Q1 of each year is seasonally always weak for Tesla. Usually, the company builds a lot of cars and ships them all over the world. However, Gali predicts that, in 2021, this trend will be disrupted, primarily due to Giga Shanghai. He does not expect a significant drop in deliveries as Tesla's Chinese factory will begin production of Model Y. Gali's forecast for Q1 2021 is around 175,000 deliveries.
He sees a huge increase in deliveries by Q4 2021, and predicts 300,000 deliveries in the last quarter of the year. In general, his forecast for 2021 provides for about 935,000 deliveries, which is equal to an increase of almost double compared to 2020, which will accordingly be reflected in revenue.
A very important part of the revenue will be income from the sale of Full Self-Driving (FSD). It already costs $10,000, and it will continue to increase as FSD is increasingly perfected.
The energy business also will continue to grow further in 2021. According to Gali, Q1 will be relatively weak, but over time this business will start booming, breaking through and bringing huge revenue growth to the company.
Accordingly, revenue and operating income will continue to grow. Gradually, Tesla is becoming one of the most profitable companies in the world with billions of revenue per quarter. Gali thinks Tesla is going to hit a 25% gross margin in 2021.
So, doubling the number of deliveries will also double the revenue, which will bring a meteoric rise in car revenues to $51 billion from $31.2 billion in 2020. Energy business revenue will grow to $3.5 billion, up from $1.8 billion last year. Service revenue will grow significantly to $2.9 billion. Gali predicts Tesla's revenue in 2021 will hit $57 billion.
Source: HyperChange/YouTube
Gali believes that this is why Tesla's share price is rising. Using the fundamental principles of financing, you can see that the company is growing rapidly and developing in the right direction, which gives its shares a very high value.
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