Contactless deliveries

Tesla Q1 2020 Delivery and Production Predictions Come Out Ahead Of Official Numbers


Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q1 2020 results should be released soon since yesterday was the end of one quarter and today marks the beginning of another one. Some TSLA bulls, supporters, and analysts have already shared their predictions, opinions, and thoughts on Tesla’s upcoming Q1 2020 results. 

Well-known TSLA bull and enthusiast Gali Russell from HyperChange recently released a video wherein he discussed his projections for Q1 2020. Russell was a little on the conservative side with Tesla’s numbers because of the current pandemic that has plagued the globe. 

“I’m conservatively expecting Tesla will deliver ~65,000 cars in Q1, growing about 5% year over year. This factors in the factory shutdown at the end of March and the macroeconomic crisis that has been unfolding. I’ve updated my full-year delivery estimates to just 350,000. I hope I’m being too negative, but am preparing for the worst,” wrote Russell in the description of his video. 

The HyperChange host shared the specifics of his estimates through a link to his Google sheet. Russell predicted that Tesla delivered a total of 65,250 vehicles in Q1 2020, comprised of approximately 55K Model 3s, 250 Model Ys, 5K Model S, and 5K Model X vehicles. 

For comparison, Wall Street analysts Dan Levy from Credit Suisse estimated that Tesla delivered 75K-80K units over Q1, reported Benzinga. Meanwhile, Daniel Ives from Wedbush expected Tesla deliveries to be 82,000 total with 14k Model S and X units, 68k Model 3 vehicles, and the remaining units being the Model Y.

The main numbers to focus on at this time would be Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y deliveries. Russell had a positive outlook for the Model 3 because of Tesla China. Giga Shanghai stopped production briefly during the Chinese New Year and only extended the holiday by a little bit when the outbreak took over the country. 

Tesla’s Shanghai factory has been operational since February 10 and has gradually increased its production rate. Thus far, Giga Shanghai seems to be ramping all its projects, including the construction of Phase 2, which may contain the MIC Model Y production line. 

Tesla’s Model Y deliveries were on the opposite end of the spectrum on Russell’s Google sheet with only 250 successful handovers. The numbers are undoubtedly conservative, especially since Tesla was ahead of schedule with the Model Y. 

Model Y deliveries have been severely hampered by the global pandemic. In his video, Russell showed some concern for Model Y deliveries in Europe where the virus has hit several countries hard, like Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. In the United States, Tesla may have faced a similar situation.  

“While Tesla noted in its production shutdown release that it was planning to implement touchless deliveries, we nevertheless would expect Tesla volume to see some impact–especially given the heavyweight of sales to California, where a ‘stay at home’ order is in place,” said Credit Suisse’s Levy.

Based on early 2020 reports it seemed the EV automaker started ramping production of the Model Y as soon as the new year started. Reservation holders were contacted to finalize their orders, and more Model Y vehicles were spotted in the wild—also parked in Fremont. Official Model Y deliveries started in early March, which was not soon enough, it seems. 

Regardless of the bleak situation, the entire global auto industry is facing; there is still hope yet for Tesla in 2020. The EV automaker has always faced adversity with a stiff upper lip and will probably do so now. 

As Ives from Wedbush pointed out, “If any company can navigate production hurdles and limited capacity, it’s Musk and Tesla looking ahead, which the bulls are betting on to navigate this unprecedented pandemic.”

Featured Image Credit: sayaka.rl/Instagram

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This article is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any such information or other material as an investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Ma. Claribelle Deveza, Tesmanian, or any third party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.

Ma. Claribelle Deveza holds zero share of Tesla, Inc., and currently (at the time of this article's publishing) holds zero options or securities in Tesla Inc. and/or its affiliates.

About the Author

Ma. Claribelle Deveza

Ma. Claribelle Deveza

Longtime writer and news/book editor. Writing about Tesla allows me to contribute something good to the world, while doing something I love.

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