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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) may still have a shot at meeting its 2020 guidance now that the Fremont Factory is up and running and Giga Shanghai has ramped production of the MIC Model 3 Long Range RWD. Tesla's 500,000 vehicle guidance for 2020 was not discussed during its first-quarter Earnings Call, leaving many to speculate and crunch numbers out themselves.
Tesla Daily recently released a video of his estimates on the EV automaker's delivery and production numbers for Q2 and the rest of the year. He forecasted that Tesla would produce 83,177 vehicles in the second quarter, which would be below the number it made during Q1 2020 at 102,672. The Fremont factory's shutdown at the beginning of Q2, plus Giga Shanghai's short break in early May could account for the decrease in production.
However, Tesla Daily predicted an uptick in production for Q3 and Q4. He estimated that TSLA would make 175,229 vehicles in the third quarter and 194,329 in the last quarter. Model Y production and Giga Shanghai's production rate could be credited for the uptick in the last two quarters of 2020.
Model Y production could hit its stride in Q3, much like the Model 3 did in Q3 2019. Around the same time, Giga Shanghai's production rate is expected to increase to 4,000 vehicles per week. According to Tesla China's VP of Foreign Affairs, Grace Tao, Giga Shanghai could hit a production rate of 4,000 per week by the end of June. Even with a conservative take on the number, Giga Shanghai's chances of reaching 4k/week before the end of Q3 are high.
In total, Tesla Daily calculated that TSLA could produce 555,407 vehicles in 2020--well above its 500,000 guidance. Tesla Daily's estimates were conservative and possible for the company to achieve, barring any more events that could prevent Tesla from ramping Model Y production in the Fremont factory or Giga Shanghai from making the MIC Model 3 Long Range RWD.
Before the Earnings Call, Tesla's 2020 guidance piqued people's interest. Back then, Wall Street's consensus was that TSLA would not meet its production goal for the year. Tesla did not mention its 2020 guidance during the first-quarter Earnings Call.
However, Gene Munster from Loup Ventures pointed out that production and deliveries were different after the Earnings Call. Munster predicted that TSLA would not meet its 500k guidance but still had a shot at beating Wall Street's delivery estimates of 403,000 units for the year.