As Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) Q1 2020 Earnings Call nears, analyst estimates and shareholder predictions have come out. TSLA investor Gali Russell from HyperChange, who is a good benchmark for cautious Tesla bulls, has released his expectations for the EV automaker in the first quarter. Wall Street’s consensus has also been released.
Gali Russell from HyperChange estimated that Tesla would make about US$5.7 billion in revenue with an operating loss of -US$270 million. When compared to TSLA’s first-quarter revenues in 2018 and 2019, the EV automaker still shows growth, according to Russell’s charts.
Russell also mentioned that Tesla hasn’t dropped its guidance for 500,000+ car deliveries in 2020 yet, which may be a good sign for the company in the latter part of the year. He predicted that Tesla has a good chance of meeting its guidance, especially if Fremont factory resumes operation by mid-May.
Tesla China could also contribute to the company's 500k+ guidance. Giga Shanghai has started producing the MIC Model 3 Long Range RWD, and deliveries are expected to begin in June. Meanwhile, construction on Phase 2 of Giga Shanghai has continued with surprising speed—even for Tesla China standards. The production line for the MIC Model Y will be in Phase 2.
Russell also said Tesla could still meet its guidance if Fremont reopened by June, but it would probably be a little tougher to deliver 500k+ vehicles by the end of 2020 by then. Tesla may provide an update or reconfirm its 500k+ delivery guidance during the Q1 2020 Earnings Call.
Overall, Russell seemed confident about Tesla’s long-term trajectory, despite the pandemic’s short term effects on the EV automaker and the auto industry in general. And Wall Street agreed with some of Russell’s estimates.
Wall Street’s estimate for Tesla’s revenue for the first quarter was higher than Russell’s predictions at US$5.8 billion with a per-share loss of 18 cents. In terms of operating loss, the Wall Street consensus was lower than Russell’s estimates at -US$135 million.
As for Tesla’s guidance, the consensus at Wall Street was that the EV automaker would not be able to meet it by the end of the year. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said reaching 500k+ deliveries was “a virtual impossibility, reported The Street.
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