Tesla Could Quadruple in Next 3-5 Years on Extraordinary Growth, Says Gene Munster

Eva Fox by Eva Fox April 05, 2021

Tesla Could Quadruple in Next 3-5 Years on Extraordinary Growth, Says Gene Munster

On April 2, Tesla published production and delivery results for Q1 2021, which were significantly higher than in any Q1 of any year, and even higher than in Q4 2020. This is an unprecedented result, reflecting the tireless work of Tesla's team and the strategically well-thought-out roadmap for the company. Gene Munster believes this extraordinary growth in quarterly numbers bodes well for tremendous growth for the company in the coming years.

In Q1, Tesla produced 180,338 vehicles and delivered a record 184,800 units. This number came as a big surprise not only to the critics of the company but also to the bulls who support it. The key point was that the chip shortage was expected to trigger an industry-wide recession and directly affect Tesla. Nevertheless, the manufacturer has shown that it is ready for even the most unexpected situations.

Gene Munster, Founder and Managing Partner of Loup Ventures, joined CNBC to share his take on Tesla's Q1 sales and deliveries growth. He stressed that Tesla's story is a story of growth and is just the beginning before the growth that the company expects in the next few years.

"These stories are rare to find and usually the reason why these happen is that something bigger is going on and I think that is exactly what Tesla is tapping into. What we are seeing in the March quarter is just the beginning of multiple years."



Prior to the announcement of the delivery results, Loup Ventures expected Tesla to be able to deliver about 160,000 units in Q1 2021 due to multiple headwinds:

  • Chinese New Year. China is an important Tesla market, so a temporary decline in production there can have some impact.
  • Lack of microchips. This affected the overall ability of Tesla, like other automakers, to produce the target number of vehicles.
  • Expectations of customers in the US to receive higher incentives from the government to buy EVs, which can be changed according to the new Biden plan. This could be the reason that some customers wanted to postpone buying a Tesla car.
  • Model S deliveries are delayed, which will affect the final delivery results for the quarter.
  • A small fire at Giga Press also slightly delayed the speed of production.

Munster also pointed out that these are only short-term headwinds that will not have a significant impact on the number of deliveries. And in fact, some of them will ultimately become long-term tailwinds for Tesla. Munster said that, despite all of this, Tesla was able to achieve numbers that exceeded all expectations. Truly a stunning feat.

According to the analyst, in the next three to five years, Tesla will be able to be a much larger company—potentially four times larger than it is now. "It's impossible to predict Tesla in the near-term, but long-term I think this goes higher."

© 2021, Eva Fox. All rights reserved.

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Eva Fox holds zero shares of Tesla, Inc., and currently (at the time of this article's publishing) holds zero options or securities in Tesla Inc. and/or its affiliates.

 






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