Tesla received a price target hike from New Street Research to $1,580 as deliveries in Q4 2021 surpassed expectations. The firm predicts the manufacturer will deliver 1.5m vehicles in 2022.

New Street Research has posted a new research note entitled Tesla 4Q21 Deliveries: monster beat, Tesla above 1.2m run-rate. Buy, TP $1,580. In the explanation, it wrote:

• Tesla 4Q21 Deliveries well above consensus and even our expectations: 309k vs. us 282k and consensus 266k.
• Model 3 & Y production up 64k sequentially vs. 25k last quarter: production of Model 3 & Y in Shanghai stepping up.
• Demand high across all geographies, low levels of inventories.
• Perfect storm for 2022: the ramp of Berlin & Texas means Tesla can easily deliver 1.5m units in 2022, up 60% YoY. We also expect continued GM expansion + the introduction of 4680. Our thesis is playing out.

New Street Research expects Tesla to deliver 1.5 million vehicles next year:

• Fremont: deliveries of ~ 114k per quarter limited by paint shop capacity in the near term.
• Shanghai: deliveries for 1H22 assumed in line with exit 2021 capacity of ~185k vehicles per quarter. Slight increases thereafter with new expansion.
• Berlin: Final approval for plant still pending. The firm expects production, ramping at 1 crew/quarter, to start end of 2021, ramping to ~70k per quarter in Q4 2022.
• Texas: major constructions still ongoing. New Street Research assumes production starts in March 2022, ramping at the same pace as Berlin.

Upside vs. consensus: the firm expects total deliveries of 1.5m vs. consensus 1.4m (7% upside), Exiting the year at an annual run-rate of 1.7m.

New Street Research believes Tesla needs to announce 4-5 new factories in the coming years to continue to grow at a 50% annual rate. The firm expects the announcements to be made no later than mid-2023, after which it will take up to 2 years before deliveries begin, and another ~2 years to increase the factory's capacity to >700k run-rate.

© 2022, Eva Fox | Tesmanian. All rights reserved.

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This article is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any such information or other material as an investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Eva Fox, Tesmanian, or any third party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.

Eva Fox holds zero shares of Tesla, Inc., and currently (at the time of this article's publishing) holds zero options or securities in Tesla Inc. and/or its affiliates.