Electric Vehicle, Full Self-Driving, Autonomous driving, Robotaxi, Tesla Network, all “these were” unfamiliar to us 20 years ago, but today it has become real, and in 10 years it will become commonplace.
Technologies are constantly evolving, but before society fully accepts them, they must go a certain way. But despite difficulties in adoption, in certain cases technological progress becomes inevitable and cannot be stopped.
Tesla's CEO is known not only for his ingenuity, sense of humor and openness, but also for his ability to foresee the future. He looks at the problems of mankind and seeks to do something that will prevent their occurrence.
Tony Seba is a world-renowned author, thought leader, speaker, educator and entrepreneur. He spoke at N.C. Transportation Summit with a report that will help clarify the essence of the technologies that Mr. Musk is developing.
In 1900, the bulk of the people used horses as a means of transportation, but after only 13 years, the main transportation vehicle became a car. Now the technical progress is going even faster.
Source: Speech by Tony Seba
Seba says that technological disruption has occurred. Technological disruption is an innovation that changes the value balance in the market. At the same time, old products become uncompetitive simply because the parameters on the basis of which competition previously took place lose their significance. This can destroy or radically transform existing industries, while these changes create new markets, jobs and opportunities.
And this is exactly what we are seeing now. Tesla began as a small business, a crazy idea in a kingdom ruled by gasoline vehicles. But now the situation has changed dramatically. Large automakers realized that if they didn't start releasing their EVs, then in just a few years they would disappear and they would be remembered, just as part of the history.
People are gradually changing interests, so owning an electric car seems more attractive to an increasing number of people. Old car manufacturers are forced to start production of EV, which in turn affects their need for workers in certain specialties. But on the other hand, it also creates a great demand for specialists in other fields, while creating new markets and new opportunities.
A few years ago, people stopped buying new cars with the same intensity as before. In 2019, the situation for gasoline cars only worsened. Unlike the drop in sales of gasoline cars, EVs sales are increasing every year. What caused this?
EV powertrains last 500,000 miles, and now Tesla is approaching the creation of a battery designed for a life cycle of about 1 million miles.
Source: Speech by Tony Seba
If an average person drives an average of about 10,000 miles a year, then this means that one car is enough for him for 50 years. Usually no one drives a car for so long, unless you live in Cuba.
But if we take transport companies, such as Uber, Lyft, FedEx, those that have their own fleet, then their cars can drive 100,000 miles a year. That is, in 5 years they will have either 1 EV or 3 ICE cars. It turns out that for fleets this makes a lot of sense purely for economic reasons.
When the cost of EVs approaches the cost of ICE vehicles, we will all see this switch, for fleets. According to Seba, this switchover will happen next year, because companies will no longer have any reason to buy gasoline cars, because they are economically unprofitable.
Amazon has ordered 100,000 electric vans by 2021, with which they will reduce shipping costs. In order for Fedex and USPS to compete with it, they will have to reduce the cost of delivery by using EV.
Tesla went even further and decided to do not just EV, but smart cars, operating systems on wheels, which have special software that makes full-self driving possible. Autonomous driving is often the subject of controversy, and news with accidents involving the presumed participation of the autopilot always occupy the first pages of news. So is autopilot safe?
Based on real data provided by Tesla, Autopilot is 8.8 times safer than a human pilot. One thing to remember always, a human will never be a safer driver than now, but Tesla technology will become. If the Autopilot system continues to improve as it is now, then in only 5-6 years, it will be 100% safer than a human.
Every year, in car accidents, people kill 1.2 million people. If the whole world right now switches to Tesla Autopilot, in the form in which it is now, then we would save 900,000 lives a year. So think about who is really dangerous?
Cars, for the middle class, are the second most expensive purchase after house. But, on average, people use a car about 4% of the time, the remaining 96% of the time the cars are parked.
Source: Speech by Tony Seba
Since most of the time people don’t use cars, it makes sense to make them part of Robotaxi. This will certainly reduce the cost of owning a car. According to Tesla, now a mile of driving in a regular taxi costs the Americans $2-3, in their own car - $0.62, and the cost of using Robotaxi will be less than $0.18 per mile, including the cost of consumables.
Robotaxi owners will be able to rent cars until they use them - just like apartment owners rent housing on Airbnb. According to the company, the owners of Robotaxi will be able to earn on lease up to $30,000 per year.
Tesla also, in the desire to implement the Tesla Network, offers to buy cars that have been leased for three years, after which they will become part of the network and will bring even greater profit.
Musk is a person who sees a few steps forward. Thanks to his ideas, the desire to realize them and the constant work aimed at this, the world is changing its perception of transport.
Featured image: Tesla