Tesla will achieve Full Self-Driving (FSD) that is safer than human driving by the end of 2022, Elon Musk is practically certain. In the coming months, the company will significantly improve the FSD Beta stack.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently mentioned that Level 4 autonomy could be achieved by the company as early as this year, and during the 4Q 2021 Earnings Call, it looks like he reiterated that claim. Responding to a question, the CEO of the company said that at the moment Tesla is moving towards perfection as much as possible. Musk said that the company strives not to be simply better than a human because this is too low a standard. People are often distracted, tired or subject to various emotions. Therefore, Tesla strives for higher standards, which requires long and painstaking work.
"So actually being better than a human, I think, is relatively very forward, frankly, how do you be 1,000% better or 10,000% better. Yes. That's what gets much harder."
As of now, according to Tesla's Q4 2021 report, nearly 60,000 vehicles in the US are using FSD Beta. The company is constantly making improvements to it, which has resulted in the number of interventions per mile dropping lower and lower, while the rate of improvement is higher. Musk said that there will be some major improvements to the FSD stack over the next few months, probably talking about a single software stack that will combine city and highway, which is expected in FSD Beta V11. The recent increase in the price of FSD also hints that the company is confident that it is already close to significant progress. Musk said he would be shocked if Tesla didn't achieve full self-driving safer than a human this year.
"But I think anyone who's been in the FSD Beta program, I mean, if they were just to plot the progress of the beta interventions per mile, it's obviously trending to a very small number of interventions per mile and pace of improvement is fast. And there are several profound improvements to the FSD stack that are coming in the next few months. So, yes. I would be shocked if we do not achieve Full Self-Driving safer than human this year. I would be shocked."
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